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Bank of England Raises Rates Sharply and Warns of 13% Inflation by End of Year

Taylor Johnston

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Britain faces a protracted recession and the worst squeeze in living standards for more than 60 years after the Bank of England raised interest rates sharply and forecast inflation would hit 13 per cent by the end of the year.

The Bank’s nine-member Monetary Policy Committee voted 8-1 to raise interest rates by 0.5 percentage points to 1.75 per cent on Thursday, the biggest increase in 27 years.

The BoE’s move followed similarly aggressive steps by the European Central Bank and US Federal Reserve in the face of soaring inflation.

But its grim forecasts suggested Britain was facing a much bleaker economic outlook than either the US or eurozone. Households are more exposed to the energy price shock than in the US, and less protected by government measures than in the eurozone, while the UK economy has also been damaged by the effects of leaving the EU.

The Bank forecast the country would slide into a 15-month recession later this year, with GDP shrinking by 1.5 per cent next year. Consensus Economics, which averages leading economists’ forecasts, projects the US will grow by 1.5 per cent and the eurozone by 1.7 per cent in 2023.

The BoE said that because of the latest surge in gas prices, driven by disruption in supplies caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, it now expected inflation to rise above 13 per cent at the end of the year — much higher than its May forecast. It would remain at “very elevated levels” throughout 2023 before falling back to the 2 per cent target in two years’ time.

“The Russian shock is now the largest contributor to UK inflation. There is an economic cost to the war. But it will not deflect us from setting monetary policy to bring inflation back to the 2 per cent target,” Andrew Bailey, BoE governor, said after the decision.

With wages rising at around half the rate of inflation, BoE forecasts showed that households’ post-tax income would fall in real terms in both 2022 and 2023, even after factoring in the fiscal support the government announced in May. The peak-to-trough decline of more than 5 per cent in household income would be the worst on record, with data stretching back to the 1960s.

Even with households running down their savings, consumer spending was set to fall over the next year, said the BoE, dragging down economic growth. Its forecasts showed a much deeper contraction in gross domestic product than it forecast in May, with the economy entering recession in the fourth quarter of 2022 and continuing to shrink for five successive quarters.

A peak-to-trough fall in GDP of 2.1 per cent would be comparable to that seen in the early 1990s and the BoE said that even once the economy came out of recession, it expected growth to be “very weak by historical standards”.

The pound slipped 0.7 per cent against the euro to €1.1865. The yield on the 10-year UK government bond fell as much as 0.07 percentage points to 1.81 per cent to reflect speculation that the BoE may hold back from future rate rises if a lengthy recession materialises.

The BoE is under growing political pressure to tackle inflation after foreign secretary Liz Truss said she would look to change its mandate if she wins the Tory leadership contest and becomes UK prime minister.

The BoE’s central forecast, which is based on market expectations of interest rates rising to 3 per cent next year, showed inflation still at double digits in the third quarter of 2023, but falling back to the central bank’s 2 per cent target a year later. If the BoE took no further policy action, its forecasts show inflation would still fall below 2 per cent by the end of 2024.

Rishi Sunak, former chancellor, said the projected surge in inflation above 13 per cent reinforced his claim that his Tory leadership rival Truss would be reckless to increase borrowing and cut taxes now.

“The bank has acted today and it is imperative that any future government grips inflation, not exacerbates it,” he said. “Increasing borrowing will put upward pressure on interest rates, which will mean increased payments on people’s mortgages.”

Sunak’s team said the 0.5 percentage point rise in interest rates would cost the Treasury more than £6bn in higher debt servicing costs.

Truss has claimed that Sunak is partly responsible for pushing Britain towards recession, due to the series of tax rises he introduced as chancellor.

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Original Source: ft.com

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Japan Intervenes to Shore up Yen As ‘reverse Currency Wars’ Deepen

Taylor Johnston

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Japan intervened to strengthen the yen for the first time in 24 years as a trio of European central banks raised interest rates, underlining the disruptive impact of inflation on currencies and monetary policy.

Inflation’s rise to multi-decade highs in much of the world has led to sharp increases in borrowing costs, with foreign exchange markets whipsawing. This in turn has set off what economists call a “reverse currency war” in which central banks seek to shore up their exchange rates against the dollar, through intervention or interest rate rises.

The latest moves, which included rate rises in the UK, Switzerland and Norway, came a day after the US Federal Reserve drove the dollar higher by announcing its third consecutive 0.75 percentage point rate rise on Wednesday.

However, Turkey’s central bank moved in the opposite direction, continuing its unorthodox policy by slashing its one-week repo rate from 13 per cent to 12 per cent despite inflation rising above 80 per cent last month. The lira fell to a record low against the dollar.

As investors bet the Fed and other leading central banks will raise rates higher than previously expected to bring inflation under control, US bond yields have risen, boosting the dollar and putting downward pressure on other major currencies including the yen, the pound and euro.

“The Fed is really setting the pace of interest rate rises and transmitting pressure to other central banks via the foreign exchange markets,” said Krishna Guha, head of policy and central bank strategy at US investment bank Evercore.

The yen has lost about a fifth of its value against the dollar this year, lifting the price of imports and contributing to an eight-year high in the growth of Japan’s core consumer prices, which exclude volatile food prices, to 2.8 per cent in the year to August.

Masato Kanda, Japan’s leading currency official, said on Thursday that Tokyo had “taken decisive action” to address what it warned was a “rapid and one-sided” move in the foreign exchange market. It was the first time Japan had sold dollars since 1998, according to official data.

The move caused the yen to surge to ¥142.39 to the dollar in the space of a few minutes. In the currency’s most volatile day since 2016, it had previously hit a low of ¥145.89 after the Bank of Japan signalled it would not change its forward guidance about interest rates and stuck to its ultra-accommodative policy.

Citigroup economist Kiichi Murashima said that, even if the BoJ were to fine-tune its policy, it would not fundamentally change the broader picture of a widening gap in financial conditions between Japan and the rest of the world. “It’s very questionable how far the government can actually avert the yen’s fall against the dollar,” he said.

There have been similar concerns in South Korea about this year’s 15 per cent fall in the value of the won against the dollar, prompting speculation about a potential currency swap arrangement with the Fed, which Seoul denied on Wednesday.

Japan is now the only country in the world to retain negative rates after the Swiss National Bank lifted its own policy rate by 0.75 percentage points on Thursday, taking it into positive territory and ending Europe’s decade-long experiment with sub-zero rates.

The Bank of England on Thursday resisted pressure to match the pace set by other major central banks, raising its benchmark rate by 0.5 percentage points to 2.25 per cent and pressing ahead with selling assets accumulated under earlier quantitative easing schemes.

But it also left the way open to take more aggressive action in November, when it will update its economic forecasts and assess the impact of tax cuts set to be unveiled on Friday by UK prime minister’s Liz Truss’ new administration.

Norway’s central bank also pushed up rates by 0.5 percentage points, indicating smaller increases would follow until early next year. Pictet Wealth Management estimated central banks around the world had this week raised policy rates by a cumulative 6 percentage points.

Emerging and developing economies are particularly vulnerable in what the World Bank’s chief economist has described as the most significant tightening of global monetary and fiscal policy for five decades.

In an interview with the Financial Times, Indermit Gill warned that many lower-income countries could go into debt distress.

“If you look at the situation of these countries before the global financial crisis and now, they are much weaker,” he said. “If you go in weak, you usually come out weaker.”

The interest rate rises set off heavy selling in government bond markets. US 10-year Treasury yields, a key benchmark for global borrowing costs, soared 0.18 percentage points to 3.69 per cent, the highest since 2011. Britain’s 10-year bond yield rose by a similar margin to 3.5 per cent.

The volatility in the bond market also rippled into equities, with the European Stoxx 600 falling 1.8 per cent. Wall Street’s S&P 500 fell 0.8 per cent by lunch time, leaving it on track for its third-straight fall as traders bet on further big rate increases from the Fed.

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Original Post: ft.com

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Bank of England Lifts Interest Rates by 0.5 Percentage Points

Taylor Johnston

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The Bank of England raised interest rates by 0.5 percentage points on Thursday, holding out the prospect of a further big increase in November, as central banks across the world seek to bring inflation under control.

The rise, to 2.25 per cent, the UK’s highest level since 2008, came as central banks around the world tightened policy in the wake of a third successive 0.75 percentage point rate increase by the US Federal Reserve.

Switzerland and South Africa raised interest rates by 0.75 percentage points, while Norway increased by 0.5 percentage points and Japan intervened to strengthen the yen for the first time in 24 years.

The BoE’s move was smaller than markets had expected and sterling later cut its gains on the day against the US dollar, at around $1.13; it is still trading near its weakest level since 1985 against the US currency.

Central banks around the world are rapidly increasing interest rates as they seek to fight the worst bout of inflation for decades, with the Fed leading the charge. But the majority of the BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee resisted pressure to match the pace set by the Fed, reflecting worries about the state of the British economy.

Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said that decision provided “reassurance that it is focused on the outlook for consumer price inflation and evidence of emerging slack in the economy, rather than with arbitrarily keeping up with the Joneses”.

The BoE said it now expected UK gross domestic product to fall 0.1 per cent in the third quarter of the year, compared with August’s forecast of 0.4 per cent growth. This would mark a second consecutive quarter of decline, cementing fears that the economy is falling into recession.

It also suggested it would wait until November, when it updates its forecasts, to take a firmer view of the new UK government’s fiscal policy, which will be unveiled in a mini-budget on Friday.

Even as the central bank seeks to rein in inflation, Kwasi Kwarteng, the new chancellor, is set to try and jump-start the economy with debt-financed tax cuts and an emergency plan to hold down energy bills.

The MPC said that, “should the outlook suggest more persistent inflationary pressures, including from stronger demand, the committee would respond forcefully, as necessary”.

Economists said this left the BoE’s path open to offset the tax cuts’ impact with a large rate increase at the November meeting. “In short, the Bank has indicated it will raise rates further to offset some of the boost to demand from the government’s fiscal plans,” said Paul Dales, chief UK economist at Capital Economics.

The MPC said the government’s energy price guarantee would lower inflation in the short term, with CPI now likely to peak at just under 11 per cent in October, earlier than expected — in contrast with previous private-sector forecasts of levels of around 15 per cent next year.

But it said inflation would hover around 10 per cent for several months, not necessarily low enough to dampen expectations of big price rises.

“Many of our members think that the peak [in inflation] will come next year and so may price accordingly, running the risk that inflationary expectations become self-fulfilling,” said Kitty Ussher, chief economist at the Institute of Directors.

In its deliberations on Thursday, the committee split three ways, with the majority — including BoE governor Andrew Bailey and chief economist Huw Pill — voting for the 0.5 percentage point move.

Three members — Jonathan Haskel, Catherine Mann and deputy governor Dave Ramsden — favoured a bigger, 0.75 percentage point increase, arguing that acting faster now could help the BoE avoid “a more extended and costly tightening cycle later”.

Swati Dhingra, a newcomer to the committee, favoured a more modest 0.25 percentage point move on the grounds that economic activity was already weakening.

The BoE also confirmed it would press ahead with plans outlined in August to reduce the stock of assets it had amassed under previous quantitative easing programmes. It is aiming for gilt sales of £80bn over the next 12 months, which would bring total assets on its balance sheet down to £758bn.

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Original Source: ft.com

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US and EU Step up Pressure on Turkey Over Russia Sanctions

Taylor Johnston

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The US and EU are stepping up pressure on Turkey to crack down on Russian sanctions evasion amid concerns that the country’s banking sector is a potential backdoor for illicit finance.

The US is focusing on Turkish banks that have integrated into Mir, Russia’s domestic payments system, two western officials involved in the plans told the FT, as Brussels prepares a delegation to express its concerns to Turkish officials directly.

The pressure on Turkey comes as western capitals pivot towards tighter implementation of existing sanctions rather than the imposition of new measures. The shift acknowledges that economic sanctions imposed after Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine in February failed to damage Russia’s economy as much as they had hoped. But they maintain closing off loopholes in the current measures will slowly squeeze the Kremlin’s financial lifelines.

“You’re going to see us kind of focus on financial sector evasion,” said the first western official. “We’ll send a message very clearly that, for example, third-country financial institutions should not be interconnecting with the Mir payment network because, you know, that carries some sanctions-evasion risks.”

“We need to close loopholes,” said a second official involved in this month’s talks between the EU and US on sanctions enforcement, citing Turkey as the major target.

Turkish bank VakıfBank is a member of the Mir payment system © John Wreford / SOPA Images/Sipa

In guidance issued on Thursday, the US Treasury department warned that non-US financial institutions risk “supporting Russia’s efforts to evade US sanctions through the expanded use of the Mir National Payment System outside the territory of the Russian Federation”.

It added that the US’s Office of Foreign Assets Control was prepared to use its “targeting authorities” — such as imposing blocking sanctions — in response to supporters of Russia’s sanctions evasion, including in relation to Mir.

Turkey’s president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, whose country has been a Nato member since 1952, has pursued what he calls a “balanced” approach to the Ukraine conflict. His refusal to sign up to sanctions against Russia and a recent pledge to deepen economic co-operation with Moscow have alarmed his western allies. Erdoğan, who will meet Putin on Friday, said last month that there is “serious progress” on expanding Mir in Turkey.

Five of Turkey’s largest banks, VakıfBank, Ziraat Bank, İş Bank, DenizBank and Halkbank, are members of the Mir payment system, which was developed by Russia’s central bank as a domestic alternative to Visa and Mastercard.

Two of those — UAE-owned private lender DenizBank and state-controlled Halkbank, notorious for its alleged role in a scheme to evade US sanctions on Iran that dates back to 2010 — signed up to Mir after Putin launched his full-scale invasion in February.

İşbank said that its policy required “strict compliance with all applicable US sanctions”, adding: “We closely monitor sanctions and take the necessary measures to carry out Mir card transactions in compliance with this policy.”

DenizBank said: “We don’t execute transactions with sanctioned banks. We fully comply with international sanctions on Russia.” Halkbank, VakıfBank and Ziraat Bank did not respond to requests for comment.

Turkey’s foreign ministry said that while Ankara had a longstanding policy of only implementing UN-backed sanctions, “we have also been equally firm in our policy of not allowing Türkiye to become a channel to evade sanctions”.

As part of efforts to strengthen enforcement, Mairead McGuinness, the EU’s financial services commissioner, is aiming to visit Turkey next month, according to people familiar with the plans. A senior EU official said: “Commissioner McGuinness has recently visited a number of countries to discuss issues related to financial services, and the implementation of sanctions in particular, given Russia’s aggression against Ukraine.”

Wally Adeyemo, deputy US treasury secretary, wrote to Turkish businesses last month warning them of “Russia’s attempts to use your country to evade sanctions” and the risks of “conducting transactions with sanctioned Russian-based entities”.

Rolled out in waves of measures in the initial weeks after Russia’s invasion, western sanctions have sought to cut off Russia’s biggest banks, energy and defence companies and hundreds of senior officials and richest businessmen from the global market.

As part of the broader crackdown on sanctions evasion, western efforts will target individuals handling payments on behalf of Russians as well as businesses that have helped set up parallel payment networks for Moscow, according to one of the officials.

The EU and US will also target entities assisting Moscow with processing Russian export revenues or facilitating imports of industrial or defence products banned under western sanctions, the three officials said.

Other measures under discussion include targeting more individuals involved in Russia’s software, ecommerce and cyber security industries, two officials said.

In addition to Turkey, the crackdown on potential back doors for sanctions evasion is targeting countries in the Caucasus, central Asia and the Gulf, officials said. “Russia will try every door. And every country needs to be mindful that we will track that and talk to them,” said James O’Brien, sanctions co-ordinator at the US state department.

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Original Source: ft.com

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