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Want to Solve the Housing Crisis?Respond to Extreme Demand

Taylor Johnston

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Housing and households in major Canadian cities from 2006 to 2016, according to data from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation and the census. (CMHC / Census data), provided by author

NS Recent News on New Zealand’s Radical New Housing Act And whether such measures work in Canada means that soaring house prices are due to supply shortages.

On that election platform, The Liberal Party has proposed investing $ 4 billion in municipal supply accelerators The aim is to build more homes. This is the wrong approach.

If policy makers and newly re-elected governments want to improve the affordability of homes and the ability of young families to become homeowners, they need to pay attention to the main factors behind price increases.Supercharged demandWas attacked by the sacred cow of Tax exemption on capital gains of main residence..

Voice chorus, From the bank economist NS Real estate industryPerpetuate the argument that it is the main cause of the surge House price There is a shortage of supply.This view has been strengthened Emphasized in media coverage and in recent election platforms..

This view of “insufficient supply” makes use of the basic economics 101 textbook, and using the widget example and a simple supply and demand curve, the price drops due to the increase in supply.

But the house is not a widget. They are unique entities that are basic needs and increasingly investment products. They are also fixed in location, and their values reflect the attributes of the locale that the buyer is willing to evaluate and pay extra.

The house is above the household budget

Between 2006 and 2016, Canada added 1,636 million households nationwide and built 1,919 million new homes. Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation When Census data.. As a result, on average, about 30,000 additional homes were built each year, compared to the increase in the number of households.

In Vancouver, new construction outperformed household growth by 19%. In Toronto it was 1%, but in Ottawa it was 4% below household growth.

Therefore, in theory, there should have been the largest price increase in Ottawa and lower price pressure in Vancouver between 2006 and 2016. However, prices rose 93% and 96% in Vancouver and Toronto, respectively, but only 47% in Ottawa.

Inadequate supply can contribute, especially in cities where household growth exceeds new House Construction, but it’s not the main or most important cause.

The more important cause is demand, not only the quantity of demand, but also the quality of demand.

Excessive demand generated by households, coupled with strong income growth and declining, and historically low mortgage rates, has virtually accumulated equity from the sustained rise in household value over the past few decades. I have seen a new phenomenon of.

Homeowners trade up

In Canada We sell about 700,000 homes a year Via resale plus Newly built house.. With 14 million households, this is only 5% of all households.

Many of these buyers are existing owners who are trading up. Only one-quarter to one-third of buyers are first-time buyers (mostly high-income earners, Parenting help). It is the larger group, the buyers who are trading up, who have the ability to pay these high prices. Certainly only a few of them may be foreign buyers When Some are investors, But most are ordinary households.

Many existing owners Income well above the median..They also significantly increased purchasing power from Historically low interest rates, And considerable wealth from unearned income generated by price increases over the years.

More importantly, they undermine the notion that additional supply slows or slows the rate of price increases. All cities are anxious for properties in their desired areas. Often, it’s a modest, old dwelling in a significant parcel. Due to its excellent location, for example, a home in downtown Vancouver could sell for between $ 2 million and $ 3 million, or perhaps $ 800,000 in Ottawa.

Developers often buy those lots, demolish existing homes and replace them with two or three modern new homes. Pricing reflects the value consumers attribute to the region and inevitably exceeds the original home price.

Developer role

For example, in central Ottawa Existing modest homes are bought for $ 600,000 to $ 700,000 and have been demolished and replaced Semi-sold on each side for $ 1.2 million to $ 1.4 million.

The same thing is happening Whole country, The price of a new home will be double the price of an existing home. The old house would have been reasonably affordable for young families if they hadn’t been overpriced by the developers.

Obviously this form of enhancement (Rezoning the neighborhood of an exclusive single-family homeAnd the expansion of supply will not stall or delay price increases, especially given the demand from buyers with wealth accumulated in search of assets in these locations. Therefore, a high supply does not mean a low supply. price..

Therefore, if overcharged home purchasing power is rising House priceThe necessary policy response, not inadequate supply, must be aimed at stagnating or curbing this demand by confiscating some of the accumulated gratitude wind and rain benefits.

This means taking on the sacred cow tax on the capital gains of the house. Young Canadians can thank them and even vote for the courageous party to do it.

Data confirms that the house near work is too expensive

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Want to solve the housing crisis?Respond to extreme demand

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Coroner Spotlights Domestic Violence, Homelessness, Fentanyl Crises in Annual Report

Taylor Johnston

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More than a third of the 61 people murdered in El Paso County last year were killed during a domestic or family violence situation.

Seven homeless people froze to death on the streets of Colorado Springs last year, and another five died from exposure to the elements from Jan. 1 through May 31 of this year.

And while youth suicides declined dramatically last year, more adolescents as well as adults are unintentionally dying from fentanyl, according to the 2021 El Paso County Coroner’s annual investigative-deaths report, released Tuesday.

“As our population grows, we’d expect to see all categories increase incrementally, but there are areas where we’ve left that trajectory,” said Dr. Leon Kelly, El Paso County coroner and chief medical examiner.

Fentanyl, a prescription pain drug, constitutes a “gross deviation” from predicted increases, Kelly said, largely because the synthetic opioid has wormed its way into many illicit street pills and often is ingested unknowingly.

That’s evidenced by the number of fentanyl-related deaths doubling for each of the past five years, he said.

Last year’s five accidental fentanyl-related deaths among children younger than age 18 surpassed the number of teen suicides last year, which fell from a record-tying high of 15 deaths in 2020 to only four deaths in 2021, statistics show.

“The big tipping point came when fentanyl went from an illegally trafficked drug to being stamped and masked as other medications,” Kelly said. “It’s easily carried, sold to kids in pills, and the cost has gone down because of the massive supply, so the barrier has been broken.”

Across the board, accidental drug-related deaths increased by 22% last year, with 107 methamphetamine deaths and 99 fentanyl deaths. Fentanyl also was found in a quarter of the meth overdoses.

Other trends that emerged from 2021 autopsied deaths:

o El Paso County saw a large increase in total firearms-related fatalities, jumping from 133 in 2020 to 167 last year.

o Homicides increased from 55 in 2020 to 61 in 2021, six of which occurred in a single mass-shooting event at a family gathering on Mother’s Day last year.

o The average age of the 78 people who died while homeless was 49 years old. Deaths of homeless during the first five months of this year are outpacing last year, with 48 deaths through through May 31.

o At least one military veteran or active-duty service member died by suicide every week in El Paso County last year.

o 58 people died in motor vehicle accidents, a decrease from 78 in 2020.

o However, 20 pedestrians and five bicyclists were killed in 2021, compared with 13 pedestrians and seven bicyclists in 2020.

o There were an additional 96 accidental deaths due to falls predominantly among the elderly, with an average age of 78.6 years, which were investigated without autopsy.

o 398 people died of natural causes, with cardiovascular disease as the top reason, causing 170 deaths, and chronic alcoholism attributed to 64 deaths.

The same type of prevention work that El Paso County has poured into reducing teen suicides needs to be deployed to counter the use of fentanyl, Kelly said.

Efforts are underway, he said, with the 4th Judicial District Attorney’s Office convening community leaders and experts to study lessons learned from youth suicide prevention that can be applied in attacking the newest threat to children’s lives.

Success in lessening youth suicides came because representatives from all sectors became part of a concerted push, Kelly said, after El Paso County ranked highest in the state and near the top in the nation for self-inflicted fatalities.

“Every conceivable youth-facing organization, from faith-based, to Inside Out (a lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender organization that serves youth), to schools, to parents to law enforcement to mental health professionals identifying what was going on and what they could bring to the table,” Kelly said.

Face It Together, a nonprofit that provides peer coaching for adults with addictions and support for families, has seen “a great need” and an increase in people seeking help with opioid addiction such as fentanyl, said CEO Wendy White.

The organization opened its first Colorado office last April in Colorado Springs and also offers remote services nationwide.

“The power of using peers helps remove the shame and stigma, and breaks down barriers, allowing people to share their situation and add more tools to their toolbox,” White said.

She said she’d like to see a “harm-reduction” approach with test strips provided for drug users to determine the toxicity level of pills they might ingest.

The public now can buy Narcan, an antidote for people overdosing on opioids, at pharmacies without a prescription, said Dr. Eric Stein Bronsky, an emergency medicine physician with Penrose-St. Francis Health Services in Colorado Springs. Emergency medical technicians and police also carry doses, which is easily administered in a nasal spray, he said.

Also, hospitals dispense Narcan when discharging patients who are on pain medication, Bronsky said.

“Not all opiate doses are illegal; a tremendous amount of overdoses come from prescribed medication, and Grandma or Mom or Dad stacking pain medicine, or their body having a harsher response that can send them into respiratory decline,” he said.

Because fentanyl is hidden in pain pills that look like OxyContin or Percocet, for example, and is more potent than other drugs, opiate abuse won’t abate, Bronsky believes, until it’s seen as a health care crisis and not a legal problem.

“They can arrest more dealers, put more people in jail, but until we’re willing to concentrate on what it is — a health care crisis — people won’t be willing to solve it,” he said. “People are willing to solve a health care crisis.”


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Defense Contractor With 200-person Office in Colorado Springs Approves Company Merger

Taylor Johnston

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Vectrus shareholders approved a merger with The Vertex Co. to create the new military powerhouse, V2X, a $3.4 billion revenue company to be based out of northern Virginia, Vectrus announced in a news release Wednesday.

The transaction will give Vertex shareholders nearly two-thirds ownership of the company and Vectrus shareholders one third, creating one of the nation’s 20 largest defense contractors with 14,000 employees in 300 locations worldwide.

“Today’s (Wednesday’s) overwhelming approval marks a significant step toward completing our merger with Vertex, and creating one of the leading providers of critical mission solutions and support to defense clients globally,” Chief Executive Officer of Vectrus Chuck Prow said in the release. “Vectrus and Vertex — together as V2X — will be better positioned to meet the mission-essential needs of our clients while delivering cost efficiencies, increased security and resiliency, with more strategic use of resources.”

The melding of the two companies is likely save about $20 million a year by eliminating duplicated information technology, computer networks along with “some consolidation of people,” as V2X tries to tackles a contract backlog of more than $11 billion reaching into 2027.

Vectrus’ Colorado Springs office of 200 employees that focuses on sales, finance and human resources will stay in place, Vectrus Vice President Michael Smith confirmed.

Vertex also operates an office near the Colorado Springs Airport that supports a contract the company manages at a radar station in Alaska that feeds data to the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD).

Summer jobs help area youths earn cash, develop skills

Prow will become CEO, Vectrus Chief Financial Officer Susan Lynch will hold the same post in the combined company and Vectrus board members will hold six of the 11 seats on the combined board, including the chairman’s post. Vertex CEO Ed Boyington will serve on the board and remain with the combined company until retiring after an unspecified transition period.

Vectrus, which specializes in logistics, information technology maintenance and operating military bases, is slightly larger than Vertex.

Vectrus generates about $190 million more in revenue and employs 2,400 more people, mostly at military bases around the world. Vertex specializes in aircraft maintenance, systems engineering and training.

“We thank all of our stakeholders for their continued support and look forward to completing the pending combination so we can begin unlocking the incredible potential of our combined platform,” Prow said.


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Wildlife Officials Warn of Possible Increase in Bear Encounters This Year

Taylor Johnston

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Colorado Parks and Wildlife is warning the public of the possibility of increased bear encounters this summer and fall because of late season storms that struck Colorado in May.

Bears’ diets depend on what kinds of foods are seasonally available such as grasses, berries, fruits, nuts and plants. These food sources can be disrupted in years that are abnormally dry or when there is a late frost like this year, wildlife officials said.

“We certainly see a correlation between annual failures of natural bear food sources and years with higher human-bear conflict rates,” said Mark Vieira, the state’s carnivore and furbearer program manger. “When natural food sources are scarce, as the smart flexible eaters that bears are, they tend to spend more time near humans.”

Bear encounters last year were down 28% compared to the previous two years. But encounters are expected to rise because of concerns about the late freeze that could limit food sources.

Wildlife officials said a late freeze occurred in May 2017 and led to a high conflict year where 109 bruins were relocated and 190 others were euthanized.

Mountainous and foothill areas from western Douglas County to Larimer County have already reported areas with frost damage to crops, while other forages continue to recover from wildfires, such as the Cameron Peak fire in 2020 — the largest in the state’s history.

“We have such a large fire footprint that the damage is already done as far as worrying about the soft mass production,” Wildlife Officer Shane Craig said. “I’m sure there were pockets of natural forage that survived, but we have already skated on our luck to get us past 2021.”

Wildlife officers are concerned about the number of gamble oak crops that died during the late season freeze. The crop produces acorns that become a vital source of food for bears as they prepare for winter and are in hyperphagia where they consume 20,000 calories a day.

Wildlife officials said nearly all emerging gamble oak crops above 6,800 feet in western Douglas County died in the late season freeze, but chokecherries and plums survived.

“We’ll be okay for the short (term), but in the 7-8 years I’ve been in my district I’ve never seen an oak dieoff like this,” Wildlife Officer Melanie Kaknes said in a news release. “The bears will have to figure out something because they have to put on weight for the winter. This dieoff (is) going to be pushing bears down in elevation and likely into towns.”

In western Jefferson County and eastern Park County, officials are concerned about the status of higher elevation crops.

“It is too early for me to know how things will pan out for the higher elevation stuff,” Wildlife Officer Dawson Swanson said in a news release. “On the good side we are getting some moisture that we desperately need, let’s just hope things did not freeze up high.”

Most adult bears survive year-to-year even if there is poor food availability.

Wildlife officials reminded residents and visitors to be aware of their surroundings and follow proper guidelines on living appropriately with bears.

These guidelines include:

Keep garbage in a well-secured enclosure.Only put out garbage on the morning of pickup; bring empty cans inside before dark.Use a bear-resistant trash can or dumpster. These are available online or from your trash hauler.Clean all garbage cans regularly to keep them odor free. The scent of ammonia can also deter bears.Take down all bird feeders. Bird feeders are a major contributor to bear/human conflicts and resulted in 1,073 conflicts between 2019 and 2021. Don’t leave pet food or stock feed outside.Install and test electric fencing to protect chicken coops, bee hives and livestock enclosuresKeep garage doors and windows closed and locked

For additional information about bears and guidance, click here.


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